Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. There were three vacancies. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. Depending then on which side has the edge in the generic ballot,. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. TheInteractiveand2023views use redistricted lines,placing incumbents where applicable. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. The final 2022 House ratings fromSplit Ticket, a political content and mapping site produced by #ElectionTwitter veterans @thomas_armin, @HWLavelleMaps,@lxeagle17, and @macrotargeting. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. The 2022 House of Representatives election will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation's capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. Less clear is what the race will do to his . Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. You can also view these ratings as a table. By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. We default to the Deluxe . Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Hover over a district for more information. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in todays KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Were now less than 4 weeks from 2022s Election Day. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms. All rights reserved. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. Full election results. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. Clickme! CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. All Rights Reserved. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Metadata. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022 Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. The following table compared U.S. House race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The figures shown are total numbers. The map below shows how each 2022 U.S. House district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election. GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships. These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. All 435 seats were up for election. In this section, you will find a list of noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries taking place across the country for the U.S. House. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. You can also view these ratings as a table. Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a "red wave" but thwart President Joe Biden's domestic agenda and will. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. Our forecast has three versions. A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. MONTREAL, Que. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. [37][38], Vulnerable Democratic incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC's Frontline program. Battle for the House 2022. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. Most Voters Reject Anti-White Beliefs. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . There were 35 U.S. House districts and one seat in the U.S. Senate in 2022 that were effectively guaranteed to one major party because no candidate from the other party appeared on the general election ballot, accounting for 8.0% of all U.S. House races and 2.9% of all U.S. Senate races. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. Find out how all this works in our. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984. Apply today! Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. 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